As explained in our previous post, the government has good reasons to keep Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir in jail. BNP’s de facto number 2 was instrumental in putting forward winning candidates in municipalities across the country two years ago. If he repeats a similar feat in the upazilla elections being speculated about, AL will be in serious political trouble. So it makes sense to lock him up.
The thing is, behind bars, Mirza Shaheb might become even more of a problem for AL. Clearly the charges against him are trumped up — I mean, burning a rubbish truck, come on! Mainstream media like Prothom Alo — hardly sympathetic to BNP — are very much sympathetic to him. In fact, the treatment he is getting from the PA-DS and allies is unprecedented and unparalleled for any BNP leader.
How long before the zombies start thinking of Mirza Shaheb as Desh Nayak?
Don’t the Awamis know they are creating a future star here?
Or maybe they know it perfectly well. According to some particularly fertile Awami imagination, there is a plan. Apparently, Mirza is being presented with some nice carrot-and-stick, good cop bad cop routine behind bars. While there are trumped up charges, notice how there is no sign of torture or maltreatment? He seems to be in good health. Behind the scene, government figures are discussing political scenarios that may appear later this year.
What kind of scenarios?
How about this one. Khaleda Zia is arrested, while her trusted lieutenants like Rizvi Ahmed meets Ilias Ali’s fate. BNP is in disarray. At this juncture, Mirza is released to lead the party.
What will he do then?
Obviously AL will want him to participate in the election. They could safely give Mirza 70 seats — more than opposition has had in current or last parliament. And as the government’s loyal opposition, he will be treated better than anyone in recent memory.
Will he take this option?
If he does lead a BNP faction into the election without Khaleda Zia, he will be supported by his former comrades like Mahfuz Anam and Matiur Rahman. Given the highly likely anti-incumbency wave, could he gamble big, thinking he might actually win?
If he joins and loses, he will be remembered as the latest BNP leader to betray the party, and join his old boss Mannan Bhuiyan in the ash heap of history. But what if he wins?
That leads to the most intriguing question — what will the BNP chairperson want Mirza to do in a situation like that? Clearly, if he leads BNP to an electoral victory against Sheikh Hasina (while she is still the PM), then will he need Khaleda around? And of course Madam will not want Mirza to break the party.
Does that mean she will want him to lead an andolon?
But even that will have interesting consequences. Any andolon, to be successful, will have to be done in Khaleda Zia’s name. This much is clear. But if he can lead a successful mass uprising and unseat Hasina, will he not be an extremely popular person?
Whether through an election or an andolon, if Mirza can defeat Hasina, he will have provided a strong reason for Khaleda’s retirement too. Talk about minus-2! And no doubt the susheels will give him full backing for this.
What path will Mirza choose?
He could be the Awami pawn, of course. And he could be the agent of minus-2.
But he could also be BNP’s dark knight. If Khaleda is arrested and he is released, he could lead the party against Hasina with the Madam’s blessing. Whether through election or andolon, if he is successful in defeating AL, Khaleda could then reward him as her successor in due time.
As we enter 2013, whether Mirza ends up being a pawn or knight will decide which queen is taken out.
